The
Labor Department said Wednesday that overall inflation climbed 0.2 percent in
January after a rise of 0.4 percent in December. And a less volatile measure
of consumer prices that excludes energy and food costs rose 0.3 percent last
month after climbing 0.1 percent in December.
Investors
on Wall Street, who were expecting that inflation would rise at a slower
rate, reacted to the new data by pushing stock prices lower. In afternoon
trading, the Dow Jones industrial average and the Standard and Poor’s
500-stock index were trading off Tuesday’s closing levels, while the Nasdaq
composite index was up slightly.
The
new price report also stung Wall Street because it came a week after the
Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke,
told Congress that he expected inflation to settle down this year. Those
remarks helped push the stock market to record levels.
But
the inflation data contained a few bright spots. Even though inflation rose
last month, it did so at a slower pace than in December, making paychecks for
the average worker go a little further. Wages for workers in non-supervisory
positions rose 2.1 percent last month after inflation is taken into account.
Inflation-adjusted wages rose 1.7 percent in December.
Price
increases also slowed in certain categories. Housing costs rose 0.2 percent
last month after climbing 0.4 percent in December. And energy prices actually
fell 1.5 percent. In December they rose 4.2 percent. Still, prices are quite a distance from
settling down to a level that will put the rate-setting Federal Open Market
Committee at ease. The closely watched “core” rate of inflation rose 2.7
percent from a year earlier, well above the 1 percent to 2 percent the Fed
typically likes to see. That reversed a four-month trend during which the
year-over-year core inflation rate fell or remained flat. After climbing as
high as 2.9 percent in September, year-over-year core inflation fell to 2.6
percent in November and December.
“Inflation
has been running above the top of the F.O.M.C.’s comfort zone for so long now
that it appears the F.O.M.C. has grown comfortable with being uncomfortable
over core inflation,” Richard F. Moody, chief economist of Mission
Residential, a real estate investment firm, wrote in a research note. “One
has to wonder how long core inflation will be allowed to drift on the high
side of the F.O.M.C.’s comfort zone before the F.O.M.C. takes action in the
form of further hikes in the Fed funds rate.”
A
sharp rise in the prices of medical care and tobacco helped elevate inflation
in January, leading some economists to conclude that a number of temporary
factors are exaggerating the numbers. “At first sight, the jump in January core consumer price
inflation seems to signal renewed inflationary vigor,” said Kenneth
Beauchemin, an economist with Global Insight. But Mr. Beauchemin pointed out
that the price increase for medical care in January rose at the fastest pace
since 1991.
Joshua
Shapiro, chief economist with MFR, said the data was “Hardly the stuff that
is likely to cause the Fed to throw up its collective hands in horror.”